With season four of the overwatch league complete and offseason chaos in full swing, I've been thinking about what the launch of OW2 will look like when it eventually happens. I've written a couple Twitter threads about it, but I'd like to centralize my thoughts here.

As of 2021-11-02, OW2 has been delayed again, this time to 2023. I've added another section to this post talking about that.

The OWL early build

We learned near the end of OWL S4 that the next season would be played on an "early build" of OW2. We didn't get any details on OW2's release date, or when we might learn more about the game. To me, this immediately raised the question of how much exposure to the game consumers will have before it's showed off in the league.

It's obvious that pro players will need to have advance access to OW2 to prepare for league play. Heroes and maps need to be practiced and understood, strategies need to be developed, and scrims need to be played. In my mind it seems like this kind of preparation should involve at least a month of lead time before the first league matches. Teams would know best what kind of time and resources they would need to get ready.

So, we can assume that pro players will have advance access. But what about everyone else? It doesn't make sense to start showing OW2 via OWL matches. The audience will need to know at least some information on all the new maps and heroes being played. The incredibly fast pace of pro-level overwatch would make it challenging to understand the new heroes with no prior knowledge of how they play. Additionally, OW2 will probably be fairly unbalanced on release (an idea I'll expand on later in this post), so it's likely that some new heroes will dominate, and others won't get any playtime at all — not a great way to show off the content that's been withheld for just about two years now. Finally, given that pro players will have early access to OW2 to prepare, leaks are inevitable if no official information is given out at the same time.

To me, all this together means that we're likely to see the marketing for OW2 ramp up heavily around the same time pro players are given access to the game. Fans will get sneak peeks at the upcoming heroes and reworks, so they will be able to know what's going on when they watch season 5 of OWL. If we're lucky, we might even see an open beta!

Balance

Almost no games are perfectly balanced upon release. OW1 certainly was not, and I think it's safe to assume the same will be true of OW2. However, I think the OW community will have high expectations of balance for OW2 compared to a game from a new franchise, as players have gotten used to at least having some semblance of balance for the past couple years. I am keeping my expectations in check, because I don't want to be disappointed.

The "plat devs" meme does have some truth to it, and I have some concern that a lot of heroes will exhibit strong balance issues when put in the hands of high level players on launch. However, there is one factor that might avoid this outcome. The feedback from pro players could be used to inform the final balance changes before the full release of OW2.

The new player experience

A phenomenon I've noticed when a new game releases in the FPS genre is that there is a short period after launch where everyone is learning the game and the playing field is leveled somewhat. When Apex Legends launched, no one really knew what they were doing and getting started with the game came easily. A few months later, and a meta had solidified, and the barrier for entry was raised. The same can be said for the VALORANT beta — I was able to start playing with almost no experience in tactical FPS and still have fun. By now, my knowledge of gameplay, maps, and agents has lagged behind and it would be a challenge to start playing again. Over time, FPS games get higher and higher barriers to entry for new players. It is of course possible to start playing and pick things up, but the entrenched knowledge the day one playerbase has can be overwhelming.

This short period where it is easier to get started is the most fun time to start playing a game, and is likely when a lot of long time players get their introduction to the game. However, OW2 will not have the luxury of a flattened playing field at launch. Players coming from OW1 will have deep knowledge of existing heroes, and a much easier time picking up new ones and learning how they interact with the rest of the cast. I'm concerned that this, combined with the likely MMR reset from OW1, will lead to OW2 being an unwelcoming environment upon release, shrinking its potential playerbase. Time will tell if this comes true, but I certainly hope it's something that the devs have on their radar.

Where's the hype?

Most of my OW friends are more casual players than me, who spend most or all of their time in quickplay and don't watch any OWL at all. They might watch a couple OW content creators on YouTube, but generally aren't up to date on everything going on with the game. Something I've noticed they all have in common is almost no excitement for the release of OW2. A combination of time since it's been announced and a distaste for the change to 5v5 has led to almost no one I know being hyped for OW2. It's no secret that OW has lost much of its market and mind share in the FPS scene, and its longtime players not being excited for the sequel's release is concerning to say the least. I hope that once the OW team starts heavily marketing the game excitement for its release grows, because it's sorely needed right now.

Final thoughts

I recognize that this post has had a lot of negativity towards OW2. I do have concerns, but I think it's important to keep in perspective the opportunity that OW2 represents. It has the potential to revitalize the OW community, bring back streamers and other content creators, and bring a fresh feeling to a game that has felt stagnant for quite some time now. I think that in a few months' time, the OW community will have a much more positive feeling towards OW2 — we just have to wait.

2023 OW2 Delay

Well, most of what I wrote above was overly optimistic. As of 2021-11-02, Overwatch 2 has officially been delayed again, this time to 2023. Additionally, it's been confirmed that the early build of OW2 will only be shared with professional players:

This is deeply concerning. There are a multitude of problems with having OW2 only available to professional players during the season, some of which I've outlined above. I believe that this move will hurt the pro scene and reduce the feeling of hype leading up to OW2's (eventual) launch. We will have to wait and see.